A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
